Britain’s private employers have all but stopped bidding for staff. Pay growth outside the public sector slowed to 2.9 per cent, the first time it has dropped below 3 per cent since the pandemic in 2020, while payrolls shrank by 4,000 and vacancies fell for another month.
The Office for National Statistics said the small contraction in June defied City projections of a rise of 20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 per cent in the three months to May, having been expected to rise to 5 per cent.
For business owners, the significant number is not the headline unemployment rate but the 712,000 vacancies still open across the economy, down another 7,000 on the quarter. The ONS attributed that decline to smaller firms choosing not to hire in order to manage their wage bills and costs.
That is a familiar calculation in any SME finance meeting. When employment costs are fixed and demand is uncertain, the vacancy is the first thing to go. The result is a labour market that looks stable in aggregate while the hiring freeze among smaller employers deepens beneath the surface.
Total average earnings growth, including bonuses, slowed to 4.3 per cent from 4.4 per cent in the previous three-month period, and was unchanged at 3.9 per cent excluding bonuses. The gap between sectors is now stark: public sector pay ran at 5.5 per cent, flattered by the timing of NHS pay awards, against 2.9 per cent in the private sector.
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