Brexit has stripped roughly 6 per cent from the size of the UK economy over the past decade, according to economists who have analysed internal Bank of England data covering the decisions, views and financial results of thousands of British firms since the 2016 referendum.
The study drew on the same intelligence the Bank uses to set interest rates, reconstructing how the UK might have grown had it voted to stay in the EU. Its conclusion is that about half the damage came from the sheer shock and uncertainty of the post-referendum years, with the remainder flowing from the higher trade barriers that followed Britain’s exit from the customs union and single market in 2021.
For the small and medium-sized firms that make up the bulk of the UK economy, the finding will feel less like an academic revision and more like a description of the past ten years: thinner margins, postponed investment and the steady accretion of paperwork at the EU border.
The research is co-authored by the British economist Nick Bloom, a professor at Stanford University, alongside economists at the Bank of England. Crucially, it is the first time the Bank’s granular information on the corporate sector has been deployed in this way.
That information comes from the Decision Maker Panel, a survey the Bank set up in 2016 with the express purpose of gauging the economic impact of Brexit. Normally used to help inform interest-rate decisions, it allowed the authors to track, year by year, how exposed individual firms were to different facets of Brexit, the impacts they reported, and the changes that showed up in their accounts.
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