European aviation is staring down the barrel of a fuel crisis that could ground flights across the continent by June, the International Energy Agency has warned, with reserves thinning at an alarming pace and replacement supplies proving stubbornly difficult to secure.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based watchdog, which counsels 32 member states on energy security, said Europe was sitting on roughly six weeks’ worth of jet fuel. Unless the bloc can source at least half of the volumes it would ordinarily draw from the Middle East, stocks will hit a critical threshold within weeks.
The warning comes as the Strait of Hormuz, the artery through which the bulk of Gulf jet fuel flows to international markets, remains effectively shut. Iran moved to close the waterway more than six weeks ago in retaliation for joint American and Israeli military strikes, and the blockade has sent kerosene prices soaring and rattled airline finance directors from Luton to Lisbon.
Speaking to the Associated Press, IEA executive director Fatih Birol did not mince his words: flight cancellations, he cautioned, could be weeks away if the taps remain shut.
Historically, Europe has leaned on the Gulf for around three-quarters of its imported jet fuel. The IEA noted that refineries in other major exporting nations, South Korea, India and China chief among them, are themselves heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude, meaning the disruption has, in its own phrasing, jammed the gears of the global aviation fuel market.
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