Britain’s small and medium-sized businesses are once again caught in the political crossfire, with long-term Government borrowing costs vaulting to their highest level in nearly three decades as the City braces for what could prove a torrid week for Sir Keir Starmer.
The yield on the 30-year gilt climbed to 5.772 per cent on Tuesday, a level not seen since 1998, while the benchmark ten-year gilt jumped 0.13 percentage points to trade above 5.1 per cent, territory last visited during the 2008 financial crisis. As bond yields and prices move in opposite directions, the sell-off lays bare the depth of unease among investors. For SME owners watching their overdrafts and refinancing windows, it is a deeply unwelcome turn.
The trigger is Thursday’s local elections, in which Labour is widely tipped to shed well over 1,000 council seats to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Green Party. Should the results prove as bleak as forecast, Westminster watchers expect Sir Keir to face an internal challenge, most likely from the Labour left, with the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner among those whose names are circulating in Whitehall and the Square Mile alike.
For investors, the calculation is brutally simple: any successor drawn from that wing of the party is likely to loosen the purse strings further, piling additional borrowing on to an already stretched balance sheet.
“The prospect of a leadership challenge is yet another source of uncertainty for businesses and households that could prompt them to put off investment and spending,” Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, told clients in a note. “Financial markets would likely respond by pushing gilt yields higher, as any successor is likely to be more spendthrift than Starmer and [Rachel] Reeves, raising borrowing costs across the economy.”
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