Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons but fall 117 seats short of an overall majority if a general election were held now, according to a seat projection published by UK Polling Report, as Prime Minister Andy Burnham ruled out going to the country before 2029.
The projection puts Labour on 209 MPs, 202 fewer than the 411 the party won at the 2024 general election, and short of the 326 seats needed to command a majority.
Reform UK would come second on 149 seats, with the Conservatives on 133 and the Liberal Democrats on 72. The SNP would take 44 seats, the Greens seven and Plaid Cymru four.
The seat numbers are drawn from an average of opinion polls that puts Reform on just under 25 per cent, Labour on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent.
Reform therefore leads on votes but trails on seats. UK Polling Report’s analysis attributes that to the first-past-the-post system, which rewards Labour for a wider geographical spread of support.
Support authors and subscribe to content
This is premium stuff. Subscribe to read the entire article.
