The Chancellor has been warned she is “flying blind” into November’s Budget after fresh analysis suggested far more non-domiciled residents have left the UK than the Government anticipated, with billions in expected tax revenues now at risk.
In a report published today, economics consultancy ChamberlainWalker says early evidence points to a significantly larger exodus of non-doms following the abolition of non-dom status in April 2025. The firm argues that Treasury assurances—based on HMRC payroll returns—that departures are broadly in line with forecasts understate the scale of outflows because many of the wealthiest non-doms are investors rather than salaried employees and therefore fall outside PAYE data.
ChamberlainWalker cautions that the Government’s projected £34bn haul from the reforms rests on “optimistic and incomplete” assumptions about behaviour, including that only 1,200 people would leave and that a small group—“in the mid-thousands”—would remain and pay substantially more under the new foreign income and gains (FIG) regime.
Chris Walker, founding partner at ChamberlainWalker and a former government economist, said: “It is worrying that the Chancellor is heading into the Budget with so little understanding of the fiscal impact of the reform of non-dom status. The Treasury is effectively flying blind about the behaviour of the most responsive group of non-doms.”
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