London’s iconic black cabs could all but vanish by 2040, warn long-serving cabbies who have seen their ranks thin by a third in the past decade.
At the heart of the crisis are mounting pressures to switch to electric vehicles, an ageing workforce reluctant to invest in pricey new taxis, and city-wide “anti-car” measures that drivers say make it harder than ever to serve passengers swiftly.
The scale of the downturn in driver numbers is striking: from a record high of 25,538 in 2014, figures from November 2024 show only 16,965 now remain—a 33.6 per cent fall. While demand for black cabs has stayed strong, the pool of available vehicles and drivers is steadily draining, with many nearing retirement and fewer newcomers taking the plunge.
Steve McNamara, head of the Licensed Taxi Driver’s Association, believes cabbies are being taken for granted. He claims that a proliferation of low traffic neighbourhoods, along with a maze of cycle lanes and 20mph restrictions, has turned London into a place “virtually impossible” to navigate. “They’ve built a road network for white middle-class men using cycle lanes to the detriment of the majority of Londoners,” he says. “It’s incredibly stressful and a lot of people think, ‘I can’t do this anymore.’”
For drivers who remain on the road, earnings have been buoyant. Fewer taxis in circulation means black cabs now control a bigger slice of the market, enabling some drivers to earn as much as £100,000 a year. Even so, Transport for London (TfL) is considering raising fixed fares by a further 7.5 per cent in 2025, on top of recent hikes totalling more than 15 per cent since 2022.
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