London’s black cab industry is at risk of disappearing entirely by 2045 if current trends continue, according to a new report by Centre for London.
The research highlights a dramatic decline in the number of taxis on the capital’s roads and warns that urgent intervention is needed from the government, the Mayor of London, and Transport for London (TfL) to prevent the trade from vanishing.
The number of licensed black cabs has fallen by more than a third (34.5%) in the past decade, dropping from 22,810 in 2013-14 to just 14,470 today. In contrast, private hire vehicle (PHV) operators, including Uber, Bolt, and Addison Lee, have seen significant growth, with the number of licensed drivers increasing by 82% since 2010 to reach 107,884 in 2023-24.
Centre for London’s findings suggest that without immediate action, black cabs could become a thing of the past, despite their continued popularity. A survey found that two-thirds (66%) of Londoners believe more should be done to support the trade, and 78% expect black cabs to still exist in 100 years.
The report identifies rising costs and dwindling financial support as key factors in the black cab industry’s struggles. The introduction of electric taxis in 2017 has pushed up costs significantly, with the upfront price of a new cab increasing by 39%.
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