Britain’s unemployment rate edged down to 4.9 per cent in the three months to April, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday, handing policymakers a modest piece of good news just hours before the Bank of England delivered its latest call on interest rates.The reading
was down from the five per cent recorded in the previous quarter and came in better than the expectations of economists, who had pencilled in an unchanged jobless rate of five per cent. It is the sort of small upside surprise that rarely shifts the dial on its own, but it lands at a sensitive moment for rate-setters weighing how much slack is building in the labour market.
Pay growth excluding bonuses held steady at 3.4 per cent over the same period, comfortably ahead of forecasts of 3.2 per cent. Adjusted for consumer price inflation, real earnings rose by 0.3 per cent, leaving workers fractionally better off in real terms. Total pay including bonuses climbed 4.4 per cent, also beating the four per cent the market had expected.
The numbers arrived only hours before the Bank of England announced its decision, with the Monetary Policy Committee widely tipped to leave borrowing costs unchanged at 3.75 per cent. The Bank trimmed rates to that level late last year, as covered in our report on how UK interest rates were cut to 3.75% as the Bank signalled inflation nearing target, and has since trodden carefully amid a patchy growth picture. The full detail of the Committee’s thinking is set out on the Bank’s own Bank Rate page.
Rate-setters have been watching the jobs data closely as they judge whether elevated oil prices, linked to the conflict involving Iran, could feed through into stronger wage demands. A tight labour market would raise the risk of a second-round inflation effect, the kind of dynamic the Bank is determined to avoid.
Support authors and subscribe to content
This is premium stuff. Subscribe to read the entire article.
