Olive oil prices are expected to fall significantly in the coming months, with experts predicting a potential 50% drop as the Mediterranean’s largest producing region, Andalusia in Spain, gears up for a bumper harvest.
The end of prolonged drought conditions is expected to boost production by 77%, with the region set to produce around 1 million metric tonnes of olive oil this season.
This surge in production offers relief to UK shoppers, who have faced record-high olive oil prices over the past two years. Gary Lewis of KTC Edibles, a major UK oil supplier, forecasts a substantial decrease in prices, estimating they could fall by 40-50%. “Prices could return to late 2022 levels, falling from €10,000 (£8,365) per tonne to €4,000-€5,000 per tonne,” Lewis said.
Consumers are likely to start seeing lower prices soon, with the full impact expected to be felt by the first quarter of 2024. The market, however, remains cautious until the crop is harvested and processed.
The price of olive oil in British supermarkets peaked this summer, with a 500ml bottle averaging £7.89 in August and September, according to Assosia. Recent weeks have seen a slight reduction, with the average price now at £7.52, as brands like Napolina and Filippo Berio begin to lower prices.
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