Expected tax revenues from the abolition of non-dom status have been dismissed as “fantasy economics” by a former government economist, amid warnings that the Chancellor is relying on deeply flawed assumptions to plug future gaps in the public finances.
Fresh post-Budget analysis published today by economic consultancy ChamberlainWalker suggests that forecasts underpinning the non-dom reforms are increasingly detached from reality. Drawing on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest Budget report alongside earlier forecasts, the study concludes that the government is assuming almost £16bn in tax receipts over the next three years will flow from overseas assets being brought into the UK — an outcome the authors say is highly unlikely under current legislation.
At the heart of the government’s projections is the expectation that around £130bn of foreign assets will be repatriated to the UK via the Temporary Repatriation Facility (TRF), part of the reforms introduced following the abolition of non-dom status in 2024. The OBR estimates that this would generate nearly £16bn in tax receipts in the near term and contribute towards a projected £34bn in revenues by 2029-30.
However, ChamberlainWalker’s analysis argues that this optimism rests on three questionable assumptions. First, it says the Treasury is banking on large numbers of non-doms making use of the TRF, despite tax advisers actively discouraging clients from doing so in its current form. While the government expects £360bn in overseas assets to be eligible, the report suggests there is little incentive for individuals to transfer funds without stronger legal certainty.
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