The Conservatives have accused Chancellor Rachel Reeves of undermining the Budget process and dragging the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) into political controversy after Labour briefed that improved economic forecasts prompted her to abandon plans for an income tax rise.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride has written to Richard Hughes, chairman of the OBR, demanding clarity on when the Chancellor received the watchdog’s forecasts and whether they played any role in last week’s surprise U-turn. Reeves had been expected to announce a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax but reversed course amid intense speculation over Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership difficulties.
Reeves dropped the plans two weeks after the OBR handed over its final pre-Budget forecast on 31 October. The timing has fuelled suspicions among Conservatives that the Chancellor’s decision was politically driven rather than dictated by the numbers. In his letter, Stride said the government’s explanations “simply don’t stack up,” adding that the Chancellor had “sullied the Budget process” by briefing details to the press and “drawing the independent OBR into the crossfire.”
Government sources claimed that Reeves acted on updated Treasury analysis of the OBR’s long-term growth projections received on 10 November, which reportedly showed a £10 billion improvement in the public finances. However, the OBR’s own published timetable says its final economic forecast—produced before any policy decisions—was delivered on 31 October and should provide the “stable base” for the Chancellor’s choices.
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