British manufacturers are retreating from the United States as a key export market in the face of growing trade uncertainty and punitive tariffs driven by former President Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda.
For the first time in the history of Make UK’s quarterly survey, the US has fallen out of the top three regions where UK manufacturers expect to do business. The stark shift in sentiment, revealed in the latest data from the industrial employers’ lobby group, reflects deepening concern across the sector that American trade policies are damaging long-standing transatlantic commercial ties.
Make UK’s survey of its 20,000 corporate members, conducted in partnership with the accountancy firm BDO, found that 60 per cent of UK manufacturers expect the Trump-era tariffs to harm their business. Just 4 per cent of those surveyed said they plan to invest in or establish new operations in the US, signalling a steep decline in confidence.
The economic backdrop is already fragile. British manufacturers are grappling with persistent inflationary pressures—most notably from soaring energy costs—which Make UK says are pushing the country to the brink of “de-industrialisation”.
In response, the group has slashed its forecast for UK manufacturing growth, now predicting the sector will contract by 0.2 per cent in 2025, following a flat 2024. This is a sharp reversal from previous expectations of modest recovery. The group has also downgraded its 2026 forecast from 1 per cent growth to a contraction of 0.5 per cent, following the announcement that exports to the US dropped by £2 billion in April—the largest monthly decline since records began in 1997.
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