Donald Trump has never been shy about his favourite economic weapon. In his pre-Christmas address to the nation, the US president once again made clear that tariffs remain central to his vision for American prosperity.
While supporters argue that tariffs are reviving domestic industry, lifting wages and restoring economic sovereignty, critics remain unconvinced. What is no longer in dispute, however, is that Trump’s tariff regime has already reshaped the global economy, and will continue to do so well into 2026.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the cumulative impact of tariff measures is one of the key reasons global growth is now forecast to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026, down from a pre-Covid average of 3.7 per cent. A year ago, the IMF had expected global growth of 3.3 per cent.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, has described the situation as “better than we feared, worse than it needs to be”. While a full-scale trade war has been avoided, growth remains too weak to meet rising expectations around living standards, employment and economic security.
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