Britain’s soaring sickness bill has left policymakers and economists scratching their heads, with near-record numbers of workers absent on long-term health grounds costing the public purse more than £65.7 billion a year.
Some 2.8 million people now claim incapacity and disability benefits, far above pre-pandemic levels, and the House of Lords’ economic affairs committee has warned that the problem cannot be attributed solely to deteriorating health or NHS delays. Instead, evidence suggests the benefits system itself may be contributing to a surge in claimants, at a time when overall sickness support already eclipses the entire national defence budget.
A rise in mental health conditions and back problems has partly fuelled the sharp jump. Official survey data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates that around 700,000 more people are out of work with long-term sickness than in early 2020. Despite the global nature of the pandemic, the UK’s incapacity rate appears to have increased more rapidly than in many other countries.
Even so, the Lords committee, after questioning leading experts, concluded: “We received no convincing evidence that the main driver of the rise in benefits is deteriorating health or high NHS waiting lists.” In fact, other government data suggests that overall health in the population has remained relatively stable over the past decade. While concerns linger over stagnant life expectancy and a growing number of Britons self-reporting as disabled, the committee believes deeper structural issues are at play.
Senior researchers highlight a mounting incentive within the benefits system that could be prompting more people to list health issues as their reason for leaving the labour market. Stephen Evans, from the Learning and Work Institute, points to tightened rules and sanctions for unemployment benefit, combined with a lower weekly payment, which can be a fraction of the top-level incapacity payout.
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