The number of children in private education has dropped by 10,000 over the past year as parents anticipate the introduction of VAT on school fees in January, according to the Independent Schools Council (ISC).
The organisation estimates the move could cost the government an additional £93 million to educate these pupils in state schools.
A survey conducted by the ISC across nearly 1,200 fee-charging schools revealed a 1.7% decline in enrolment, with the steepest drop—4.6%—occurring in year seven, the first year of secondary education. This data compares pupil numbers from September 2022 to September 2023.
The government’s decision to add 20% VAT to private school fees is set to take effect in January 2025, a move Labour claims will generate £1.5 billion in additional funding for state education and teachers. While ministers have suggested schools do not have to pass the full VAT cost onto parents, few schools have committed to absorbing the charges.
Wales has been hardest hit, with a 5.2% drop in private school enrolment, followed by Yorkshire at 2.6%, and southwest England at 2.4%. The ISC noted that the decline is particularly affecting smaller schools and those with lower fees.
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